By Vijay L Bhambwani

Any oil trader worth his salt studies oil market history. The Yom Kippur war of 1973 forms a crucial part of oil trading history. On 6 October 1973, Israel was attacked by Egypt and Syria in what is now known as the Yom Kippur war. Israel retaliated and western countries supported Israel. Arab oil exporters stopped oil exports and prices went through the roof. It changed oil trading forever, including oil politics, geopolitics, Arab cartelisation and oil trading and speculation.

A day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war, we are back to square one as Gaza based Hamas launched 5,000 rockets on Israeli targets. A day later Lebanon based Hezbollah launched rockets at Israeli targets. The Israeli cabinet invoked article 40A and declared an official state of war, a first since 1973. The development has raised the spectre of the 1973 oil price spike. Are the two events linearly comparable? Will Arab nations brandish the …